NFL Week 5 betting odds, picks, suggestions: What to search for in Bengals-Ravens and extra

Week 5 of the 2022 NFL season kicked off Thursday evening with the Indianapolis Colts pulling out a 12-9 victory over the Denver Broncos. Hopefully Sunday we’ll get a bit extra pleasure. We’ve got a number of division matchups, culminating Sunday evening with the Cincinnati Bengals visiting the Baltimore Ravens.

However what does all this imply from a betting perspective? And what are the perfect performs that can assist you make sensible wagering selections?

Betting analysts Doug Kezirian, Tyler Fulghum, Joe Fortenbaugh, Anita Marks and Erin Dolan, fantasy and sports activities betting analysts Eric Moody and André Snellings, ESPN Stats & Data’s Seth Walder and Soccer Outsiders’ Aaron Schatz supply perception into the video games with suggestions and picks.

Word: Strains from Caesars Sportsbook except in any other case indicated.

What’s your largest betting storyline coming into Week 4?

Schatz: There’s a number of parity within the league this 12 months. Fourteen groups are actually 2-2 (plus Denver, which was 2-2 earlier than Thursday evening). Do not let that confuse you into considering all 2-2 groups have performed the identical. There is a massive distinction between Baltimore’s 2-2 and Arizona’s 2-2. It is mirrored within the line, and it’s worthwhile to be sensible about it in the way in which you place bets.

Walder: Simply one thing to keep watch over, however there was a really slight shift within the stability of energy between run and go up to now this 12 months. Designed dashing effectivity is at an all-time excessive in our knowledge set — which fits again to 2006 — at 4.24 yards per designed carry. Yards per designed go are down simply barely from final 12 months (6.30 to six.24). It is simply price holding in thoughts as we attempt to forecast how typically — and the way effectively — groups will resolve to run.

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Rookie Kenny Pickett will get his first NFL begin Sunday, and the Pittsburgh Steelers are 14-point underdogs on the Buffalo Payments, the most important they’ve been because the AFL/NFL merger (1970). The Payments (-14, 47) have struggled as effectively the previous two weeks. Are you laying the large quantity or taking the 14 with a rookie QB?

Schatz: It is a shut one, but when I’ve to decide on, I will take the rookie quarterback and 14 factors. There’s this sense on the market that the Payments’ offense is unstoppable, and it actually is not that good. It is fairly good! However not unstoppable. Buffalo is tenth in our offensive DVOA scores — and Pittsburgh, even with out T.J. Watt — is tenth in defensive DVOA. The opposite aspect of the ball is a big mismatch; the rookie quarterback towards our No. 2 protection. But when the Steelers can preserve the Payments to an affordable variety of factors, there is a good likelihood the rookie quarterback can rating some garbage-time factors and produce us a pleasant backdoor cowl.

Moody: The Payments’ offense averages 412.5 yards per sport, which is third within the NFL. It is going to be troublesome for a Steelers protection with out T.J. Watt to sluggish Buffalo down. The Steelers are giving up a staggering 383 yards per sport. With Josh Allen underneath middle, Stefon Diggs, Devin Singletary and different offensive playmakers, this Payments offense shouldn’t have any downside shifting the ball up and down the sector and scoring a ton of factors. The Steelers’ protection ranks twenty sixth in go rush win fee. Pittsburgh may have issue pressuring Allen. The Steelers are averaging solely 278.8 yards per sport on offense, so head coach Mike Tomlin shall be searching for a spark, however Kenny Pickett on the street may have a tricky time going blow for blow with Allen. I am backing the Payments regardless of the massive unfold.

A key battle for the AFC North takes place Sunday evening because the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens conflict in Baltimore. Cincy has rebounded after an 0-2 begin, whereas the Ravens have misplaced massive leads in each of their losses. The Ravens are 3-point favorites within the sport and +100 to win the division, whereas the Bengals are +190. Who do you want within the sport, and who do you wish to win the North?

Fulghum: I’ve at all times favored and proceed to love the Ravens to win this division. Lamar Jackson is enjoying out of his thoughts, and regardless of the 2-2 document, this staff has performed like a 4-0 staff for all however two quarters up to now this season. The Bengals offense is struggling mightily to provide the explosive performs that propelled Cincinnati to the Tremendous Bowl final season, and though the Ravens’ secondary has struggled at occasions this season, I belief Baltimore to get again on observe on this matchup as a staff and take a lead within the AFC North.

Schatz: Give me Baltimore to win this division. We’ve got the Ravens profitable it greater than half the time in our playoff odds simulation, making +100 nonetheless good worth. They’ve clearly been the category of the division up to now, regardless of these two shut losses. They’re third within the league in complete DVOA, together with No. 1 in offense and in particular groups. We had the Ravens as the perfect staff within the division coming into the season as effectively. Plus, they’ve the simplest remaining schedule within the division. Primarily based on common DVOA of opponents, the Bengals have the toughest remaining schedule within the league and the Baltimore schedule is roughly common.

Snellings: I have been on document since effectively earlier than the season started that I imagine the Bengals will repeat as AFC North champions this season, and the primary month has solidified it. The Bengals do not win in a means that’s simply quantified by fashions. They do not overwhelm on both aspect of the ball, and they tend to play to the extent of their competitors in both route. However the Bengals’ energy on either side of the ball is strictly that skill to regulate to their opponents. Their protection within the second half of video games is far stingier than within the first … this was epitomized by their two wins over the Chiefs final season, the place they held Patrick Mahomes & Co. to only a few second-half factors in a giant comeback — twice. And on offense, they depend on Joe Burrow‘s accuracy and moxie to make the large performs when wanted. Within the first two video games of this season, the inexperience of the new-look offensive line plus Burrow’s post-appendix-surgery rust had been evident with 13 sacks, 3 passing touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Up to now two video games, because the rust has come off, it has been solely 3 sacks, 5 passing touchdowns and no interceptions. The Bengals are trending up, and they’re going to win the shut video games the Ravens have been dropping to take the division.

This Sunday, I just like the over (over 48.5, -110). The Ravens’ offense has been nigh unstoppable this season, averaging 29.8 PPG towards a slate of sturdy AFC East defenses. The Bengals’ offense, as I simply detailed, has come along with expertise, and Cincinnati has scored 27 factors in every of its previous two video games. The Bengals’ protection is strong, however the Ravens’ protection has been a weak spot. Each groups ought to put factors on the board.

What are the three most necessary issues that our analytics say?

Walder: Let’s take a look at three video games FPI likes relative to the unfold:

San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers (+6.5)
Sunday, 3:05 p.m. ET, Financial institution of America Stadium, Charlotte, N.C.

FPI nonetheless has some religion within the Panthers, which is definitely fairly a shock to me, notably on condition that Baker Mayfield actually ranks final in QBR. However that is additionally a couple of lack of religion within the 49ers. Sure, they beat the Rams final week. And sure, they’ve Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback now, which is an improve within the mannequin’s thoughts over the uncertainty of Trey Lance. However Garoppolo hasn’t precisely lit the world on hearth both — he is twenty seventh in QBR — and so FPI simply is not satisfied San Francisco ought to put this many factors on the street.

New York Giants vs. Inexperienced Bay Packers (-8)
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET, Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London

Does anybody imagine within the Giants? FPI completely doesn’t. It considers Massive Blue the Twenty ninth-best staff within the NFL, even working underneath the assumption that Jones will play this weekend. Equally, it hasn’t misplaced religion within the Packers regardless of too-close-for-comfort victories over the previous couple of weekends. Typically, that is about FPI inserting a reasonably heavy quantity of weight on its priors and never seeing sufficient to dramatically transfer both staff but.

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers(-9.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Fla.

As disappointing because the Buccaneers’ offense has been, their protection has been completely strong, rating third in defensive effectivity (effectivity is predicted factors added per play, with rubbish time downweighted). If we’re betting on a type of models to alter its stage of play, the mannequin goes to financial institution on it being Tom Brady‘s offense being fairly good going ahead.

What’s your finest wager for Week 5?

Dolan: Eagles first half -3. The Birds are 4-0 straight up however have not lined each sport. The one space they excel at is the primary half. Philadelphia leads the league with a mean of 23 factors scored within the first half. Oh, and get this … Arizona is lifeless final in factors scored within the first half with a mean of 4 factors. Eagles cowl the primary half.

Fulghum: Teddy Bridgewater — aka the ATS Gawd — is getting the beginning for the Dolphins in Week 5. Bridgewater is 42-21 ATS as a starter in his NFL profession. That’s the finest mark by any QB with at the least 40 begins within the Tremendous Bowl period. He’s 5-2 ATS as a street favourite, which is equally spectacular, if no more so. The Dolphins, having performed on Thursday in Week 4, have the remainder benefit, as effectively. I do know Zach Wilson led a fourth-quarter comeback towards the Steelers, which is spectacular, however I am on no account satisfied that he has made huge strides but. Dolphins -3 at Jets.

Schatz: Eagles -3 within the first half. I used to be going to jot down right here about how I have been driving the Eagles’ bandwagon because the preseason and all people else is lastly climbing aboard. The Eagles are second in DVOA up to now this season, whereas Arizona is Twenty ninth. That is not a shock, as we had the Eagles far forward of the Cardinals in our preseason projections, particularly as a result of we anticipated a decline for the Arizona protection — which has occurred. I used to be going to advocate Eagles -5 for the complete sport right here. However Erin is correct, the Cardinals are notably weak with regards to early scripted performs. So why fear a couple of backdoor cowl within the fourth quarter?

Snellings: Giants +8 over Packers. The Packers have proven me nothing this season that signifies they need to be giving eight factors towards any cheap staff. After dropping convincingly to a strong however unspectacular Vikings squad and defeating the Bears, they’ve gained their previous two video games by a mixed 5 factors over a Buccaneers squad lacking all of its large receivers and a Patriots staff lacking its prime two quarterbacks. The Giants have been strong this season, if towards restricted competitors.

If Daniel Jones (ankle) sits, then I withdraw this choose and my finest wager reverts to the Bengals-Ravens over 48.5 that I wrote about above. However assuming Jones performs — he was capable of end final sport and log restricted follow time this week — then I just like the Giants to cowl.

Moody: The Bengals +3 over the Ravens. After a disappointing 0-2 begin, Cincinnati has gained some momentum. An underperforming Baltimore protection ought to present loads of scoring alternatives for the Bengals. Final time these two groups met, Joe Burrow threw for 525 yards and 4 touchdowns. Moreover, the Bengals’ protection is doing an excellent job stopping the run and limiting the passing sport. Cincinnati has performed effectively containing Lamar Jackson in earlier video games. Joe Mixon and the Bengals’ working sport must be in fine condition because the offensive line is lastly jelling. Moreover, Cincinnati is the second-best staff within the league at carrying down defenses by time of possession. It will additionally preserve Jackson off the sector. In my view, the Bengals will play effectively sufficient to cowl the unfold. Cincinnati is 7-1 towards the unfold in its previous eight video games following a straight-up win.

What’s your favourite participant prop?

Dolan: Burrow over 273.5 passing yards towards Baltimore. This wager nearly feels too simple, because the Ravens rank lifeless final in passing yards allowed. The Ravens aren’t horrible towards the run, which makes me imagine Burrow shall be slinging the ball all sport. He has hit over this quantity in three of 4 video games, together with two straight the place it feels just like the Bengals have discovered their groove once more. I am unable to belief the Ravens’ protection towards the go.

Fulghum: Matthew Stafford underneath 258.5 passing yards. The Rams have had important struggles defending Stafford this season towards elite pass-rushing groups (Buffalo and San Francisco each sacked him seven occasions). Effectively, I am unsure when you’ve heard, however this Micah Parsons child is fairly good. The Rams proceed to be restricted offensively resulting from an absence of field-stretching velocity to threaten the again finish of the protection and an offensive line that’s each injured and ineffective. Stafford may full 15 passes to Cooper Kupp once more, however do not anticipate them to web explosive performs.

Schatz: Let’s go along with Michael Carter underneath 31.5 dashing yards towards the Miami Dolphins. Final week, the Jets lastly moved to the place all of us knew they had been going — Breece Corridor because the No. 1 again within the committee. Now they play the Dolphins, who’ve been a little bit of a go funnel this 12 months. The Dolphins rank fourth in run protection DVOA however thirty first in go protection DVOA. I see this as a aggressive sport all through, however the go performs are going to be there for Zach Wilson, which implies fewer runs, particularly for Carter, now that he is RB2.

Walder: Elijah Moore underneath 45.5 receiving yards. I truly like Moore and assume he and Garrett Wilson supply a brilliant future for the Jets. However there are solely so many yards to go round, particularly with Wilson on the helm of this offense (it should take a couple of good comeback to make me a believer). Between Wilson, Moore, Corey Davis, Tyler Conklin, Breece Corridor, Michael Carter … I do not assume Moore can get the goal share to justify this line. My projections anticipate 35.5 receiving yards from Carter, making him a strong fade.

Snellings: Derrick Henry over 103.5 complete dashing/receiving yards. Henry has ramped up prior to now two weeks, producing 143 complete yards towards the Raiders and 147 complete yards towards a powerful Colts run protection. The Commanders are permitting opposing working backs to common 112.3 complete yards towards them this season, and none of these opposing backs has been of Henry’s caliber.

Moody: Deebo Samuel over 55.5 receiving yards. With Garoppolo again underneath middle, Samuel has as soon as once more turn into the focus of the 49ers’ passing sport. He has had 15 targets over the previous two video games and produced 11 receptions for 188 yards. His benefit over all Panthers cornerbacks is important. On account of Samuel’s skill to create yards after the catch, he ought to simply surpass 55.5 receiving yards. Up to now month, Carolina’s secondary has allowed some spectacular performances from large receivers.

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