NFL odds Week 5: Trip Mahomes, Chiefs as favorites; finest betting tendencies

Week 5 of the NFL season is upon us, and FOX Sports activities Analysis is right here to maintain providing you with the sides wanted to make a revenue this week.

Final week’s tendencies piece identified a number of winners.

4 highway underdogs coated towards the unfold (ATS), Kliff Kingsbury improved to 8-0 ATS and straight up (SU) as a highway underdog in regular-season video games since final yr, the Las Vegas Raiders coated and earned their first win and the Dallas Cowboys continued their betting dominance towards NFC East opponents with a win over the Washington Commanders,

As at all times, we did a deep dive into the info and dissected total patterns to determine one of the best tendencies of the week. We additionally checked out extra coach- and player-specific tendencies, which ought to assist inform you on who to guess on this week.

Let’s bounce into it, and have some enjoyable!

The Over hits in Week 5 video games with an Over/Underneath of 43 or much less

Since 2000, the Over hit in 82 of 137 Week 5 video games (59.9%) wherein the whole was listed at 43 or decrease. When trying on the similar conditions since 2005, the Over hit in 53 of 89 such video games (59.6%). And a newer pattern measurement, since 2010, the Over has hit in 27 of 45 video games (60%) with a degree complete of 43 or much less.

Getting into this weekend, there are 4 video games with an Over/Underneath level complete of 43 or much less.

The video games that match the invoice are (totals supplied by FOX Guess):

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos (42.5)

New York Giants at Inexperienced Bay Packers (40.5)

San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers (38.5)

Tennessee Titans at Washington Commanders (42.5)

Residence favorites of seven to 14 factors do not cowl as typically as you’d assume in Week 5

Week 5 options 5 video games with favorites of seven or extra factors, with all six favorites coming at house. We determined to have a look at how typically house favorites of seven to 14 factors have coated the unfold in Week 5 video games traditionally. The outcomes are listed beneath:

  • Since 2018: 6-7 ATS (46.2%)
  • Since 2015: 8-11-1 ATS (42.1%)
  • Since 2010: 17-15-1 ATS (53.1%)
  • Since 2005: 22-18-2 ATS (55%)
  • Since 2000: 25-29-3 ATS (46.3%)

As you may see above, the duvet fee is beneath 50% when going again to 2015 and 2018. Whereas it jumps up when charges from 2005 and 2010, it drops again considerably to 46.3% when trying on the proportion of covers since 2000 In easy phrases, it hasn’t been worthwhile to guess on groups to cowl in these conditions.

FOX Guess’s spreads for every of the six video games that match this weekend are:

Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Payments (-14)

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-7)

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7)

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9)

Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (-7.5)

Payments cowl as double-digit favorites

The Payments coated as double-digit favorites towards the Titans earlier this season, and historical past says they’re going to do it once more this week towards the Steelers.

As we talked about in our Week 2 put up, Buffalo is dominant beneath Sean McDermott as double-digit favorites. Underneath his watch, the Payments have gone 6-2-2 ATS (75%) and 9-1 SU (90%) in such conditions. McDermott and the Payments have additionally been a gentle cowl as house favorites, going 16-9-3 ATS (64%) and 23-5 SU (82.1%) in these video games.

FOX Guess at present has the Payments as 14-point favorites.

For those who’re questioning what they’re as a 14-point favourite or bigger beneath McDermott, they’ve gone 3-2-2 ATS (60%) and 6-1 SU (85.7%) in these video games.

Lions ought to cowl towards the Patriots

This one could be a bit shocking, contemplating the Detroit Lions’ perennial struggles, however there are numerous information factors of their route.

Since 2018, Detroit is 15-13 ATS (53.6%) as a highway underdog and likewise 6-4 ATS (60%) in such conditions beneath Dan Campbell. Probably probably the most eye-opening nugget is that the Lions are 14-7 ATS (66.7%) total going again to final season, tied with the Packers for the second-best cowl proportion within the common season in that span (Cowboys are first) .

It is also fascinating that the Lions are underdogs because the standing of New England quarterbacks Mac Jones and Brian Hoyer remains to be unsure. Ought to they each be dominated out, Bailey Zappe will make his first profession NFL begin. One thing to regulate.

Search for the Chiefs to cowl towards the Raiders

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs placed on a dominant efficiency towards the Buccaneers final week, and they need to cowl once more this week. Whereas we mentioned earlier that house favorites of seven to 14 factors do not cowl too typically in Week 5, the Chiefs are the exception right here — particularly as a result of they’re taking part in the Raiders. Underneath Andy Reid, the Chiefs are a whopping 7-2 ATS (77.8%) and 8-1 SU (88.9%) at house when taking part in the Raiders. General, Kansas Metropolis is 12-6 ATS (66.7%) and 15-3 SU (88.3%) towards the Raiders beneath Reid. One thing of notice is the Over has hit in 10 of these 18 matchups (55.6%).

Different information would not level within the Raiders’ route both. Since 2018, they’ve been 6-7 ATS (46.2%) and 5-8 SU (38.5%) on the highway towards AFC West opponents. FOX Guess at present has the Chiefs as a 7.5-point favourite in Monday’s matchup.

Dolphins ought to cowl towards the Jets

regardless of Tua Tagovailoa being dominated out for Sunday’s sport towards the New York Jetsthe Miami Dolphins have been dominant on this matchup lately. Since 2016, Miami is 9-2-1 ATS (81.8%) and 10-2 SU (83.3%) when taking part in the Jets, with the Underneath hitting in seven of these 12 video games (58.3%).

The Dolphins are additionally 17-8-1 ATS (68%) and 15-11 SU (57.7%) towards AFC East opponents since 2018, and extra particularly, they’re 7-4-1 ATS (63.6%) on the highway when taking part in division opponents throughout that very same time span.

It also needs to be talked about that Teddy Bridgewater will get the beginning for the Dolphins. Bridgewater is an astounding 24-6 ATS (80%) as a starter in highway video games. The Miami native is 5-2 ATS (71.4%), and SU as a highway favourite.

So are you prepared to put some NFL Week 5 bets? Head over to FOX Guess now for all of your wagers!

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