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Kyle SoppeESPN
Since 2009, 10 of 13 Tremendous Bowl champs had a profitable file ATS by means of three video games and as a gaggle, that set of groups lined 71.8% of video games (outright: 79.5%). Even crazier? Take away two absolutely wholesome Tom Brady Tremendous Bowl seasons in New England (2014 and 2018, thought being right here {that a} full wholesome Brady within the midst of a dynastic run is not precisely a standard handicapping state of affairs) and that price jumps to an absurd 78.8% (outright: 84.8%).
OK, let’s hold pulling. With these two Brady seasons eliminated, solely three of 11 measured groups had a unfavorable level complete in comparison with the over/beneath by means of three video games. So, by means of three weeks, latest traits recommend that our future Tremendous Bowl champion has a profitable file (each outright and ATS) together with a optimistic complete margin. Nice, so who’re these groups?
A bizarre record? Little bit. So how can we choose the place to position a futures wager? Just a little projecting.
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Of those previous 13 champions, they’ve outscored opponents by a mean of seven.6 factors throughout the common season. Present marks: Ravens (+7.3), Dolphins (+6.3) and Browns (+4.3)
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Each Tremendous Bowl winner this millennium has had an interception price north of two%. Present marks: Ravens (4.3%), Browns (1%) and Dolphins (0.8%).
The Ravens grade out as a really affordable Tremendous Bowl choose by means of three weeks (+1400, T-Sixth highest odds).
I can hear you: “No matter, Miami beat them head-to-head!”. True. However they did so after being out-gained by 70 yards by means of three quarters, one thing that occurs roughly 18% of the time. I am not offered. These latest traits just like the Ravens as the very best worth within the Tremendous Bowl markets by means of September. As for a way each staff appears by means of three weeks …
Dolphins ATS: 3-0
O/U: 1-2
What we all know concerning the Dolphins: That is 10 covers in 12 video games for the ‘Fins, with beneath tickets cashing in eight of these video games.
Bengals ATS: 1-2
O/U: 0-3
What we all know concerning the Bengals: That is 4 straight unders in Bengals video games, this approaching the heels of a 7-2-1 stretch for overs.
Vikings ATS: 1-2
O/U: 1-2
What we all know concerning the Vikings: The Vikings are simply 1-4 ATS over their previous 5 street video games, with that lone win being a 17-9 win over the Bears in Week 15 final season … as a seven-point favourite.
Saints ATS: 0-3
O/U: 1-2
What we all know concerning the Saints: A tough begin, however a welcomed calendar flip. Over the previous 5 seasons, solely the Steelers (76.5%) have lined October video games at a better price than the Saints (72.2%).
Payments ATS: 2-1
O/U: 1-2
What we all know concerning the Payments: The Payments have been street favorites in seven video games because the starting of final season and 5 of them have gone beneath the whole.
Ravens ATS: 2-1
O/U: 2-1
What we all know concerning the Ravens: Every of Baltimore’s previous 4 video games have seen the whole be a minimum of 11 factors totally different than the projection. When you have a really feel for sport movement, there’s worth available!
Bears ATS: 1-1-1
O/U: 1-2
What we all know concerning the Bears: The Bears are 2-8 ATS of their previous 10 street video games in opposition to the NFC.
Giants ATS: 2-1
O/U: 1-2
What we all know concerning the Giants: Not one, not two, not three … seven straight covers for the G-men when on a brief week. That is the case this week with the Bears coming to city after the Giants hosted the Cowboys on Monday night time.
Browns ATS: 0-2
O/U: 0-2
What we all know concerning the Browns: All three Cleveland video games have gone over the whole this season, giving them extra overs within the 2022 season than that they had over the ultimate two months of the 2021 season.
Falcons ATS: 3-0
O/U: 3-0
What we all know concerning the Falcons: The Falcons lined at dwelling in Week 1 in opposition to the Saints as 5.5-point underdogs (27-26 loss). They have not lined consecutive dwelling video games since doing so in Weeks 9 and 12 in 2020.
Jaguars ATS: 2-1
O/U: 2-1
What we all know concerning the Jaguars: The Jags have now lined three of 4 after failing to cowl a single time in a seven sport stretch.
Eagles ATS: 2-1
O/U: 1-2
What we all know concerning the Eagles: The Eagles are dwelling favorites this weekend. Their final ATS loss in such a spot got here in Week 7 of 2020 (over that stretch: 4-0-1 ATS).
Jets ATS: 1-2
O/U: 1-2
What we all know concerning the Jets: When you’re fading the Jets ATS, it is necessary to notice that every of their previous 4 ATS losses have are available in tandem with the beneath hitting.
Steelers ATS: 2-0
O/U: 2-0
What we all know concerning the Steelers: When their sport kicks off Sunday, the Steelers may have gone 327 days because the final time the received a sport outright by which the over hit. When you just like the “Black and Gold” on this spot, latest traits recommend pairing it with the beneath.
Titans ATS: 1-2
O/U: 2-1
What we all know concerning the Titans: The Titans have lined three-in-a-row in opposition to the Colts and in 4 of their previous 5 conferences with the divisional rival, over tickets have come by means of.
Colts ATS: 1-2
O/U: 0-3
What we all know concerning the Colts: The Colts began out 0-2 ATS, however grabbed their first win, ATS and outright, with a dramatic win in opposition to the Chiefs.
Chargers ATS: 2-1
O/U: 1-2
What we all know concerning the Chargers: The Bolts bought again on the over practice in Week 3, giving them seven overs of their previous 9.
Texans ATS: 2-0-1
O/U: 1-2
What we all know concerning the Texans: The Texans are 3-1-1 over their previous 5 video games, however have received precisely zero of these video games outright.
Seahawks ATS: 1-2
O/U: 1-2
What we all know concerning the Seahawks: Because the starting of final season, unders are 7-2 when Seattle performs on the street.
Lions ATS: 3-0
O/U: 3-0
What we all know concerning the Lions: The Lions have not simply lined all three video games this season, they’re a outstanding 10-2 ATS over their previous 12. Their final ATS loss? Week 17 of final season … in opposition to the Seahawks.
Commanders ATS: 1-2
O/U: 2-1
What we all know concerning the Commanders: When you’re out on the Commanders, you are out on factors. In 5 of Washington’s previous seven failures to cowl, the beneath has come by means of.
Cowboys ATS: 2-1
O/U: 1-2
What we all know concerning the Cowboys: Over tickets have cashed in seven of Dallas’ previous 10 video games on brief relaxation, together with all three such video games a season in the past.
Cardinals ATS: 1-2
O/U: 1-1-1
What we all know concerning the Cardinals: The Cardinals had been 8-1 ATS on the street final season and whereas it wasn’t a murals, they’re 1-0 ATS this season away from dwelling this season (an OT win at Vegas as a 5.5-point underdog).
Panthers ATS: 1-2
O/U: 1-2
What we all know concerning the Panthers: The Panthers lined at dwelling for the primary time in 371 days final week and can attempt to make it two-in-a-row this weekend.
Broncos ATS: 1-2
O/U: 0-3
What we all know concerning the Broncos: All three Broncos video games have gone beneath the whole by greater than 10 factors this season.
Raiders ATS: 0-3
O/U: 1-1-1
What we all know concerning the Raiders: The Raiders have didn’t cowl three straight video games this season, one thing they didn’t as soon as, not twice, however thrice in 2021. The excellent news? None of these streaks prolonged to a fourth sport.
Patriots ATS: 0-2-1
O/U: 1-2
What we all know concerning the Patriots: The Patriots pushed in Week 2 at Pittsburgh, however they typically do not play video games which can be near the unfold. Aside from that effort, none of their video games since final November have been inside seven factors of the unfold.
Packers ATS: 2-1
O/U: 0-3
What we all know concerning the Packers: Does three straight unders for the Packers sound odd? It should not. From Weeks 4-10 final season, they rattled off seven straight unders.
Chiefs ATS: 1-2
O/U: 1-2
What we all know concerning the Chiefs: Right here we go once more. The Chiefs opened final seaosn 2-7 ATS after which promptly lined six straight as soon as the general public started to bitter on them.
Buccaneers ATS: 2-1
O/U: 0-3
What we all know concerning the Buccaneers: Hearth up the Tom Brady mattress time stats. His Bucs are 2-8 ATS with unders going 7-3 (5 straight hits) when taking part in common season video games in primetime.
Rams ATS: 1-2
O/U: 1-2
What we all know concerning the Rams: Do not count on fireworks on Monday Evening Soccer, 5 of the Rams’ previous six primetime video games have gone beneath the projected complete.
49ers ATS: 1-2
O/U: 0-3
What we all know concerning the 49ers: After dropping seven straight ATS at dwelling, the 49ers have lined every of their previous 5 in entrance of their loyal followers (beneath tickets have cashed prior to now three).