Betting Suggestions for Monday Evening Soccer: Rams vs 49ers

Week 4 of the NFL Season Ends on Monday Evening San Francisco 49ers Internet hosting (-1.5, 42.5) Los Angeles Ramso At Levi’s Stadium (ESPN, 8:15 PM ET,

After the thrilling Sunday motion, we’ve one other alternative to wager on skilled soccer if we so select. So which performs do our analysts love probably the most?

betting analyst Joe FortenbaughFantasy and Sports activities Betting Analyst Eric Moody And Andre Snellings, ESPN Stats & Info Seth Walder and Soccer Outsiders’ Aaron Schatzo Present their high performs.

Word: Traces from Caesars Sportsbook except in any other case indicated.

Los Angeles Ramso Feather San Francisco 49ers (-1.5, 42.5)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET, Levi’s Stadium

Regardless of having a 2–1 file, the Rams enter the sport as an underdog. What are your ideas on the whole and unfold for this recreation and which one do you favor?

Fortnbagh: I lean towards the 49ers, however I have not been to the counter but. I believe it is telling that San Francisco was -1 on the look-ahead line final week after which went and laid an egg in Denver, whereas the Rams gained an eight on the street in Arizona. In any case the road goes from SF-1 to -1.5? I am prone to play beneath right here as properly, so long as it stays north of 42. Each groups are ranked nineteenth or worse in yards per recreation and I do not suppose it is getting significantly better in opposition to these respective strongholds.

Schatz: That is one other early recreation the place we’ve to ask ourselves which is extra necessary: the knowledge we knew earlier than the season began or the knowledge we’ve gathered over three weeks of play? Analysis exhibits that even after three weeks, pre-season monks are nonetheless extra necessary. So though San Francisco might have been the higher staff this season, the Rams regarded like the higher staff based mostly on pre-season data – and we should always nonetheless assume they’re on par (and even barely higher than) the 49ers. I’ll positively take ram and factors.

Snellings: I’ll take Ram with numbers. The guilt of 49 folks has carried out nothing to make me suppose that they need to be on the aspect of a protection like Ram. Jimmy Garoppolo He solely has a QBR of 29.2 in his first two video games, and he notably struggles in opposition to a Broncos protection whose construction is just like the Rams’ protection that he’ll face on Monday. Based on FPI estimates, Ram has a 60.4% probability of successful outright and will really be favored by 3.1 factors.

Walder: FPIs have a robust stance right here, which is in favor of Ram. FPI was down largely as a consequence of San Francisco getting into the season. Trey Lance, however the 49ers superior considerably after Lance was injured and the staff turned to Garoppolo. The mannequin is aware of who performed when, nevertheless it’s not just like the 49ers’ struggles got here solely with Lance. Nonetheless, final week’s 11-10 embarrassment in opposition to the Broncos left a mark on the FPI, and it is again to point out a basic disdain for San Francisco. Due to its conviction, I lean in the direction of Rams +1.5.

moody: Garoppolo regarded shaky beneath middle for the 49ers final week because the offense broke out. He ought to bounce again in opposition to Ram. In his profession, Garoppolo has averaged 258.2 passing yards per recreation in opposition to Los Angeles. Nonetheless, I do not consider it is going to be sufficient in opposition to a Rams staff that has gained two straight video games after shedding to the Payments in Week 1. Ram ought to cowl the unfold. Relating to the whole, I am leaning in the direction of the draw back. On this divisional matchup, each the defenses will maintain the rating low. kyler murray And the Cardinals tried 58 passes final week, however the Rams had been capable of maintain them out of the top zone.

The Rams have had hassle protecting huge receivers this yr, with six totally different huge receivers allowed to hit their overs over the previous three weeks. what are your ideas Deebo Samuel (54.5 receiving yards), Brandon Ayuko (49.5) and George Kittel (43.5) To do the identical?

Fortnbagh: Ayuk over 49.5 yards is a play for me. He has been focused eight occasions within the final two video games, and regardless of how unhealthy Garoppolo regarded in Denver final week, he’s nonetheless a extra constant passer at this degree than Lance. Ayuk can also be an enormous menace to San Francisco, which implies we do not want six receptions to redeem this ticket.

Schatz: I really feel like Jalen Ramsey Will play higher in future weeks as there isn’t a motive to consider that they’ve instantly dropped considerably. Nonetheless, I do not know if Ram would wish to use him particularly to cowl Samuel. The remainder of the Rams have weaknesses of their secondary, so I favor going with overs from each Samuel and Ayuk.

Snellings: I like Samuel to go to 54.5-plus receiving yards on Monday. He’s Jimmy G’s protecting defend, and he will get the ball throughout the sphere. Final week, in a recreation by which the 49ers scored solely 10 factors and Garoppolo had simply 14.5 QBR, Samuel nonetheless scored at season highs in targets (8), reception (5) and receiving yards (73). stepped on. Samuel has traditionally carried out properly in opposition to this Rams protection, having obtained 5 receptions final season, 97 yards and touchdowns in Week 10, 4 receptions for 95 yards in Week 18, and 4 receptions for 72 yards, and within the NFC Fired for landing. championship recreation.

Walder: My estimates are according to the market right here so none of this excites me notably. Nearest is Kittel and Underneath. I’ve acquired him a mean of 40.1 yards (although that is a imply, not a median), so it might have been rather less if I used to be setting the road. Nonetheless, I normally search for huge variations from the prop line earlier than putting bets. As such, I might consider Kittel as only a lean.

moody: Samuel, Ayuk and Kittel are all positioned for fulfillment in opposition to Rama’s protection. Samuel’s run out of the backfield has not been as profitable this season as final yr, and it might be clever for the 49ers to make use of him extra typically as a downfield menace. Towards the Rams, Samuel averages 73.3 receiving yards per recreation. Compared, Ayuk has averaged 48.3 yards per recreation. Towards the Rams, Kittle has averaged 78.4 yards per recreation. It’s doable for all three gamers to go their respective participant props when going through the Rams’ secondary. Garoppolo will bounce again on Monday night time.

Regardless of being the underdog in Monday night time’s recreation, the Rams are at the moment -145 to win the NFC West. The 49ers are proper behind them at +180. Are you rolling with the defending Tremendous Bowl champs to take the division or does San Francisco (and even Arizona) stand an opportunity?

Schatz: I’ll steer clear of betting on NFC West right now. Our Playoff Odds on Soccer Outsiders Listing all three groups that at the moment rank worse than the percentages you may discover at most bookmakers. You’ll primarily be paying for the wig quite than receiving any worth. In truth, based mostly on efficiency to this point this yr and for our low pre-season forecast Arizona Cardinalswe actually have Seattle Seahawks Proper now with barely higher odds than the Cardinals. That makes Seattle the one +EV wager to win the division, nevertheless it’s a fairly lengthy shot – so what?

Snellings: I like cardinals at +750. I see it as a aggressive division, the place any of the three groups has a legitimate probability of successful. So when one has such a taller odds than the opposite two, it piques my curiosity. Cardinals get deandre hopkins again after three extra video games, and when he returns, will pair with marquis brown For giving Murray probably the most harmful pair of wideouts ever. Final season, the Cardinals led the division for probably the most a part of the yr and gained 11 video games, proper between the Rams and the 49ers. I see no motive why this season’s race would not be that shut, so I am going to take the underdog odds.

moody: if i needed to Decide one in every of these groups, I am going to nonetheless wager on the defending champion Rams. Offensive line accidents ensuing within the absence of van jefferson, and a sub-optimal run recreation, the Rams look mediocre. it’s blended by Matthew Staffordincapacity to develop a relationship with Alan Robinson II, These components have contributed to his gradual begin. Over time, the rams will develop into more healthy and Odell Beckham Jr., Could possibly be again in November or early December. Los Angeles remains to be the staff to beat in NFC West. That mentioned, I agree with Schatz that I would like to not wager on this division in any respect.

What’s your greatest wager for Monday night time video games?

Fortnbagh: I like Cam Akers Underneath 54.5 Speeding Plus Receiving Yard. He averages solely 3.5 yards per carry this season and has caught solely two passes in three video games. Now he is on the street, going through a protection that is averaging solely 2.8 yards per carry this season (greatest within the NFL). It is not likely a recipe for fulfillment.

Schatz: Whereas Acres had 12 carries (solely 4 for .) Darrell Henderson Jr..) Final week, that they had the same variety of snaps, so I do not consider Akers can be featured again as a substitute of getting a carry-share place. Plus, San Francisco ranks third within the Run Protection DVOA to this point this yr. So I am going to take the acres in it for beneath 43.5 speeding yards.

Snellings: Once more, I actually like Samuel over 54.5 yards. Along with the explanations I discussed above, since final yr, Samuel has had greater than 54.5 receiving yards within the final 4 regular-season video games (and 11 of the final 15), by which Garoppolo was the beginning quarterback. And in his three matchups with the earlier season (together with the playoffs), he averaged 88 yards per recreation via the air in opposition to him for greater than 54.5 yards in every recreation.

Walder: i am going with Cooper Kuppo Underneath 93.5 receiving yards. It is principally the least enjoyable wager you may make in soccer as a result of on each snap you are frightened in regards to the Kupp objective – and let’s be sincere, it is most likely coming. Nonetheless, there ought to be a quantity the place you would be prepared to wager in opposition to Kupp, and in keeping with our ESPN Analytics estimates, we’re in that territory right here. We solely have 80.3 receiving yards of Kupp, so I am going to fade the Kupp, whether or not I prefer it or not. i’m additionally taking Leonard Floyd Over 0.25 sacks (+340 on DraftKings). I simply acquired my weekly sack mannequin up and working and it has no higher worth in week 4 than Floyd’s over 49. Positive, no sacks this season. However Floyd is posting a strong 21% go rush win price on the lead (14th greatest) and has a multi-year historical past of manufacturing on this offensive line – with 20 sacks over the previous two seasons. while you play on the identical line as Aaron DonaldSack alternatives are going to come up.

moody: With 49ers it is laborious to disregard Kupp on this matchup. Final season, Kupp averaged 10 targets and 120 receiving yards per recreation in opposition to San Francisco. Already, the 49ers have given up on large video games cortland sutton And tyler locket, I am going to take over 93.5 receiving yards. I additionally like Tyler Higby To go to the reception greater than 4.5. Higby has caught 16 of his 24 targets for 171 yards in three video games this season. Stafford has not constructed up a lot of a rapport with Robinson, and consequently, has typically regarded beneath Higby’s route. Towards the 49ers, this development ought to proceed.

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